'경제 이야기'에 해당되는 글 5건
- 2008.09.17
- 2008.02.28
- 2008.02.23
- 2008.02.17
- 2007.11.16
미국발 여러 악재가 우려하듯이 나타났습니다.
초기에는, 서브 프라임- 즉 제 2금융권 신용 경색으로 인한 경제 위기에서 비롯된, 스태그 플레이션에 대한 위기감으로, 세계 경제 대 공항이 올 것이라 생각 했었는데.
이건 뭐, 유력한 주식 운용자 이자, 세계 보험 1위 회사까지 흔들리는걸 보고, 미국이 절체 절명의 위기에 빠졌다는 생각이 듭니다. 가장 큰 문제점은 자금의 유동성에 문제가 생기면서, 연쇄 도산이 우려되는 것입니다.
우리나라 IMF때 부실 채권으로 인해, 왠만한 중소기업은 줄줄히 도산을 한 것을 보면 알수 있는 일이지요. 미국 금융권이 무너지면, 미국 경기는 급 하강하고, 미국 때문에 먹고 사는 수많은 국가들은 줄줄히 도산, 그 중에 한국 역시 피해 갈 수 없습니다.
더 웃긴건, 급한 사항 때문에, 미국 정부에서 저렇게 돈을 시장에다 가져다가 푸는데, 환율은 급등하고 있다는 사실입니다. 도대체 환율 관리는 어떻게 한건지. (강만수 멍청한건 이미 알았는데 ㅜ.ㅜ), 미국쪽 투자 자금이 빠지지만 그 자금은 한국으로 오지 않고, 한국 투자본 역시 급격히 빠져나가면서, 달러에 대한 수요 증가로 환율은 상승중입니다. 또한 미국에 투자 많이 한 한국 기업들의 자금 운용은 완전히 엉망으로, 빼도 박도 못하는 상황에 놓여 있내요...
세계 경기 위축 때문에, 원자재 수요 급감으로부터 오는, 원자재 가격 급락 역시, 환율 상승으로 인해, 그 효과가 미비해 지면서, 국내 경제의 유일한 핵인 수출 시장 역시 쉽게 풀리지는 않을 것 같네요.. 우리 회사 역시, 원자재에서 가격 경쟁력을 확보해야 하는데, 위기에 봉착할듯 보입니다.
방법은 현재 보유중인 달러로 원자재를 구매하고, 오른 환율을 통해, 가격 경쟁력을 확보하고, 결재가 이루어지는 내년쯤의 국제 경기가 살아나기를 바라며, 많은 프로젝트를 수주하는 것이 가장 좋은 방법으로 보여집니다.
위기와 기회는 동전의 양면처럼, 반대지만, 붙어 있습니다.
위기 속에 기회를, 기회 속에 위기를 찾아내는 능력이 필요한 때인데요..
언제쯤이면, 이런 능력을 갖게 될지..
울 회사 입장에서는 최대한 증가한 환율을 활용하여, 가격 경쟁력을 확보하는 것이 최우선 과제인데...ㅜㅜ
그 전에,
지금 나의 투자를 어떻게 해야 하는지 심히 고민을 해 보는 밤입니다 ㅡㅡ;
Watch inflation now!
Worries about 1970s-style stagflation have moved to the forefront to rival recession fears. Should the Fed be more worried about rising prices?
But inflation worries are now back in focus in a major way. Oil prices hit a record of $101.32 a barrel in trading Wednesday, and was briefly above $100 again Thursday
Meanwhile, the Consumer Price Index, the government's key inflation reading, showed a 4.3% rise in overall prices over the past 12-months. That reading has risen steadily from only 2.0% last August. Even stripping out volatile food and energy prices, the so-called core CPI posted the biggest seasonally-adjusted one-month jump in 19 months.
If that wasn't enough to stoke inflation fears, the Federal Reserve raised its inflation forecast for 2008 Wednesday while also cutting its outlook for economic growth this year.
This prompted the Wall Street Journal to herald the return of "stagflation" -- the unwanted combination of stagnant economic growth and destructive inflation -- on its front page on Thursday. The New York Times also trotted out the word in a headline Thursday.
All of this made some market experts who have been worrying about inflation for a while chuckle on Thursday.
Rising prices were hard to miss
These so-called inflation hawks argue that it is precisely because the Fed and markets have been ignoring inflation that it has again become a threat.
Rich Yamarone, director of economic research at Argus Research, said it should have been apparent that the price of food and other items would start heading higher after a large number of consumer product companies talked about passing on rising commodity costs to consumers late last year.
However, some inflation watchers were also quick to point that the current situation is a long way from the stagflation seen in the 1970's, when interest rates and inflation both climbed into the teens. To put that in perspective, the federal funds rate is now at 3%.
"I find it funny that people who didn't think there was any inflation in the pipeline are now talking about stagflation," said Barry Ritholtz, CEO director of equity research for Fusion IQ. "This is nothing like the 1970's, which was a pretty dismal period and not just because of polyester and disco."
Inflation doves: Slowdown could solve problem
Typically, slower growth or an actual recession cuts demand for products enough to curb prices. Based on the minutes from the Fed's latest meetings, that seems to be what the Fed is banking on to keep inflation under control.
Other economists agree that current inflation pressures are typical for the start of a recession and that prices should be held in check by the coming downturn.
David Rosenberg, the chief North American economist for Merrill Lynch, wrote in a note Thursday that inflation should not be a major worry.
He argued that commodity prices have only a limited impact on the cost of final goods and that wage growth is a bigger contributor to inflation. A weak job market should keep wages from rising sharply.
What's more,
Inflation hawks: Dust off the bell-bottom pants
Still, there are reasons the economy could be heading for a period of stagflation.
The weakening dollar is a concern since it raises the price of dollar-denominated commodities, such as oil and other raw materials, as well as imported goods.
Ritholtz argues the weaker dollar is part of a longer-term trend that could keep price pressures building to very painful levels in the future.
"The big risk is not that we have stagflation today," he said. "The risk is down the road this turns into a serious case of stagflation. If I had to guess where we are, I'd say we're probably where we were during the oil shock of 1973-74."
Ritholtz said that overseas demand from growing markets such as
"Unless we see a significant
More rate cuts may not be the answer
Argus Research's Yamarone said he's worried that the Fed seems to be willing to ignore its mandate to keep prices stable and this could lead to more inflation.
"The Fed has pretty much told us inflation is on the back burner," said Yamarone. "Maybe inflation is not that alarming yet. But I think you'll have this slow creep, and next year you know the pace will be significantly elevated."
He added that if the markets lose faith in the central bank's inflation-fighting credibility, long-term bond yields will shoot much higher.
Already, the yield on the benchmark
A bigger spike in long-term bond yields could be problematic because many rates that affect consumers and businesses, such as fixed-rate mortgages, credit cards and corporate debt, are more closely tied to long-bond rates set by markets than the short-term rates set by the Fed.
With all this in mind, Yamarone said the closely-watched CPI could jump as high as 6.5% this year. That would wipe out any chance for the economy to show gains when adjusted for increased prices, the most common measure of a nation's economic growth.
In other words, even if the economy doesn't actually decline, it may feel like it has to many consumers.
"This is how you get economic conditions to feel like a recession to the average person who has to feed his family and heat his house," Yamarone said.
원본 글 보기 (http://money.cnn.com/2008/02/21/news/economy/inflation/index.htm?postversion=2008022114)
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